TROPICAL UPDATE FROM STATE CLIMATOLOGIST, JAY GRYMES 6.15.26

Opinions are mine … the NHC and NWS offices serving Louisiana provide the federal weather expertise

We’ve recently seen the NWS Climate Prediction Center upgrade the current ENSO tracking from an El Niño Watch to an El Niño Advisory … yet here we are in mid-June potentially tracking the first Atlantic tropical cyclone of the season in our own ‘backyard’.

The NHC has recently dubbed the disturbance over Mexico as Invest 90L, the first invest of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Their logic is that this disorganized cluster of storms has a 40% to 50% chance of working its way back over the northwestern Gulf and becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Based on current modeling, 90L will have only a brief period of time over water before moving back over land as it heads into Louisiana: that will limit its opportunity for strengthening.  Regardless of the peak winds, everything points to a monster rainmaker for some Louisiana parishes, with the WPC suggesting that some locations could get two months’ worth of rainfall in 3-5 days.

Flood Watches are already in effect for most of the state and Louisiana parishes have seen a number of Flash Flood Warnings posted over the past 24 hours.  We can expect additional Flash Flood Warnings in the coming days, with Flood Watches potentially being extended deeper into the week.

In addition to the flood threats from localized excessive rains, Emergency Managers and residents should keep a close eye on river forecasts coming out of the NWS LMRFC: current forecasts only include rainfall estimates for the next 24 hours and are therefore likely too low for peak crests along most gaged waterways.

Thanks/Courtesy:

Local NWS forecast offices serving LA:  SHV, JAN, LCH & LIX

NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC)

NWS Water Prediction Service

NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

US Geological Survey (USGS)

TropicalTidbits.com

WeatherModels.com

GOHSEP & LSU