UPDATE FROM STATE CLIMATOLOGIST, JAY GRYMES 8.10.26

The NHC and our local NWS meteorologists are the experts … these are my opinions.

Only really keeping one eye on the Atlantic right now … with the other eye watch low-end (“Marginal Risk” … 1-out-of-4 on threat scale) for locally heavy rains across the southern parishes today that could produce nuisance and roadway flooding in spots … not widespread.

Heat & humidity will become the operative words for the rest of the week across Louisiana as rain chances drop substantially and afternoon highs head into the mid to upper 90°s with peak Heat Index readings in the 105° to 110° range, especially into the weekend.

As for the 2 disturbances in the tropical Atlantic … neither currently looks to be a threat for the Gulf.  The more western disturbance (10% / 10%) likely succumbs to the “Eastern Caribbean Graveyard”.

The more eastern disturbance (20% / 60%), has a better chance of getting tagged as an invest but is expected to be a slow-mover, possibly only getting as far west as the Antilles region in 7 days or so.  That disturbance is also expected to take on a more northwesterly track based on extended-range models, which turn it north of the Antilles and effectively mean no threats for the Gulf.

And possibly more importantly, it looks like it could be headed into a more hostile atmospheric environment in a week or so.

Recent updated forecasts from CSU (9 ‘named’ storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 ‘major’)  and TSR (10, 4, 1) have both lowered their seasonal forecast numbers.  With just two storms thus far this season (Arthur & Bertha), the basin activity is slowly falling behind the ‘average’: as of August 10, the average numbers for the Atlantic basin show 3 ‘named’ storms including 1 hurricane.

Sadly, Louisiana has taken a hit from both of the season’s storms, especially from Arthur, even though that system will not count as a Louisiana landfall.

Thanks/Courtesy:

NOAA/National Hurricane Center (NHC)

NWS Offices serving Louisiana: SHV, JAN, LCH & LIX

NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

WeatherModels.com

TropicalTidbits.com

WeatherNerds.org

weather.gov/forecastpoints#