TROPICAL STORM BETHA 8 AM UPDATE FROM STATE CLIMATOLOGIST, JAY GRYMES 7.23.26

Comments are mine … the NHC and Louisiana’s local NWS forecast offices (SHV, JAN, LCH & LIX) house our federal weather expertise.

Bertha managed to re-locate its center of circulation (CoC) over the northern Gulf last night, keeping the system ‘alive’ even with the persistent northeasterly shear and ‘dry’ air intrusion.  Max sustained winds as of 7 AM Thursday were estimated to be at 45 mph and that is likely to remain Bertha’s status until a Texas landfall later today.

As has been the case throughout, that northeasterly shear has kept Bertha from vertically stacking, with the main convective blob consistently positioned southwest of the CoC: that trend will continue today.  But with Bertha taking a slight northwest jog this morning, some Louisiana communities along the western half of the coastline could get some tropical-storm-force wind gusts.  Officially, the NHC has sustained tropical storm winds inland over coastal Louisiana.

Rain does not look to be much of a factor today, at least in terms of flooding downpours.  One or two pockets of heavy localized rain might develop within ‘backside’ rainbands later today (if they develop) but those are not likely to be a serious problem.

Water levels along the south facing coast could still get 1-3 ft above-normal, especially for the southwest coast.  Those elevated tides and storm-related surge should relax tonight into Friday.

Not sending a statewide “Stand Down!” just yet . . . but the tropical threat is over for southeastern and most of south-central Louisiana, with southwestern Louisiana soon to follow later today.

Thanks/Courtesy:

National Hurricane Center (NHC)

NWS offices serving Louisiana: SHV, JAN, LCH, and LIX

NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

NWS Water Prediction Service

synopticdata.com

weathernerds.org

tropicaltidbits.com

weathermodels.com

GOHSEP & LSU