TROPICAL UPDATE FROM JAY GRYMES, STATE CLIMATOLOGIST 10.5.26

Opinions/comments are mine … federal weather expertise is housed at the NHC and LA’s local NWS offices.

Far from sounding an ‘alarm’ here … just an update of something “out the backdoor.”

The NHC began posting development chances for a low-pressure area in the southwestern Gulf on Saturday evening, with those percentages slowly rising over the last 36+ hours.

While the area has not earned a NHC invest designation as yet (92L?), it seems reasonable to assume that it will become an invest if development percentages continue a slow rise.

Early guidance from several ensemble runs suggests that the low drifts slowly in the SW Gulf for the next couple of days, then begins an advance to the NE/NNE later in the work week while potentially earning a tropical upgrade.

Lots of unknowns here … and the low-pressure area shows little-to-no organization at this time.  However, given the system’s location in the Gulf, Louisiana residents should monitor closely.

Thanks:

National Hurricane Center (NHC)

NWS offices serving LA:  SHV, JAN, LCH & LIX

WeatherNerds.org

WeatherModels.com

NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

GOHSEP & LSU

Cell:  225-505-6916