TROPICAL UPDATE FROM JAY GRYMES, STATE CLIMATOLOGIST 10.6.26

Opinions/comments are mine … federal weather expertise is housed at the NHC and LA’s local NWS offices.  Stay informed with your local media experts and be selective in following social media clickbaiters.

Now tagged as 92L, this SW Gulf system appears destined for strengthening, likely becoming Isaias (“ees-ah-EEE-ahs”) within the next 48 hours or less.  In fact, several models have it becoming a hurricane prior to its approach along the Gulf Coast.

Still plenty of uncertainty, particularly with the forecast intensity … but the early track forecasts show a somewhat surprising degree of consensus with regard to a turn to the north later this week, with “southeast Louisiana in play” for some of the model runs.

It is NOT time to sound the alarm just yet … but it is a good time to assess your personal, family, and business preparedness … particularly for parishes south of the tidal lakes and coastal communities from Terrebonne to St. Tammany parishes.  Are you ready (food, meds, power outages) should this system take a quick turn northward and roll into SE Louisiana?

Thanks:

National Hurricane Center (NHC)

NWS offices serving LA:  SHV, JAN, LCH & LIX

WeatherNerds.org

WeatherModels.com

NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

GOHSEP & LSU

Cell:  225-505-6916